US annual home price growth accelerated again in September, underscoring a rebound in the housing market as it entered the final quarter of the year. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 102.0 this month from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October. US consumer confidence rose in November after three straight monthly declines, though households continued to anticipate a recession over the next year, a survey showed. November 28's US data, however, continued to trend in a positive direction. "We're seeing outbound dollar flows grow on a consistent basis ahead of year-end as investors rebalance portfolios to take advantage of an expected decline in 2024." "For several decades now, the dollar has tended to outperform when the US economy is extremely weak or extremely strong relative to the rest of the world, and has typically fallen during circumstances resembling those now in play – when most major economies are simply muddling through, and growth gaps (between the US and the rest of the world) are narrowing," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. The index is on track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance since November 2022. The dollar index, which measures its value against six major currencies, fell as far as 102.89, the lowest since Aug. US rate futures were pricing in a 23% chance of a rate cut in March, rising to a roughly 50% probability in May, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. That slowdown should prompt the Federal Reserve to begin easing some time next year. The US dollar sank to a three-month low on November 28, as investors continued to take the view that growth in the world's largest economy is starting to slow down after an aggressive tightening cycle since March last year.
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